2012 Real Estate Predictions – How I scored

On January 20, 2012, I posted my Memphis Real Estate predictions for 2012.  I guess if one is going to make predictions, he has to be accountable.  I am not the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist (that would be Lawrence Yun, pictured below), but here is how I did with my 2012 predictions:

Memphis Real Estate Predictions for 2012 – Scorecard

1. Unit sales will increase significantly in 2012 – the demand has been pent-up for a really long time.  People are going to start buying houses to live in again.
   CORRECT– while the investors are still picking up properties at bargain prices, it seems that more owner-occupant buyers were active this year.  The Memphis Area Association of Realtors reports a 17.2% increase in unit sales over 2011.
2. Home prices will remain flat or decline slightly – it is going to take a while to cycle through the valuation thing.  Among the Zestimates,  appraisals, unrealistic sellers, foreclosures, and short sales, we will be struggling for some reality in valuation for a while.
   WRONG –  median and average sales prices showed an increase of 2.4 and 2.2% respectively.  Not too dramatic, but I think going forward prices will be more impacted by declining inventory than increased demand.
3. Foreclosures will increase in 2012 – they were only slowed down in 2011 by government actions.
   CORRECT – According to MAAR, foreclosure actions increased in 2012 by 10.9% over 2011, with 4575 residential properties in foreclosure actions.
4. The Presidential election will have little or no impact on the housing market.
   CORRECT -The politicians seem to have successfully sidestepped housing issues, mortgage interest deductions, and addressing FHA and the GSEs for a while.
5. Real estate consumers will engage more in social media and online research than in the past, continuing to erode effectiveness of print information/advertising.
   CORRECT – just check the Sunday newspaper.  Consumers continue to increasingly depend on online and mobile real estate resources, and the mobile apps continue to improve as competition among the big portals, Realtor.com, Trulia, and Zillow continues to heat up.
6. Consumers will demand more information via mobile devices.  Agents and companies will begin to realize the proper use and effectiveness of new technology, such as QR codes.
   CORRECT – it’s a given that mobile is our future.  Technology is developing faster than the speed of change.  We are even seeing prettier QR codes, and I believe marketers are finally understanding QR’s power.
7. The government will dabble in the housing market again with another costly and ineffective program like the First Time Buyer Tax Credit a few years ago.
   WRONG – The only government that is top of mind is HARP 2 (Home Affordable Refinance Program) which provides simplified refinancing for certain underwater home owners, and seems to be working fairly well.
8. There will be more outcry from both sides of the aisle in Congress to cut back or eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction.
   WRONG – to my knowledge Congress has been pretty quiet about this issue.
9. Housing in Downtown Memphis will make a major comeback.
   CORRECT – Unit sales were up 19.6% in 2012, with average sales price up 4.8%.
10. Schools will be a bigger issue than ever for families purchasing homes in the Memphis Area.
    Half Credit – with everything that has happened with the merger of City and County school systems and the emergence of plans for  tiny town school districts, who knows?
11. Demand for condominiums throughout the city will increase.
    CORRECT – I may have to amend this later, but my unofficial research shows about a 27% increase in condo sales in 2012, with 475 units sold.)

Total Correct:  7.5  or 68.2%

I am working on my 2013 Predictions.  Look for the soon.

• Author
• Recent Posts

Joe Spake

Realtor at InCity Realty

Joe Spake is a Real Estate Broker and Consultant, specializing in Midtown, Downtown, and East Memphis residential properties. His interests include architecture, community activism, music, photography and cooking. Get more great real estate information on Joe's Facebook Page. Call 901-870-3440 or Email Joe@spake.com

Latest posts by Joe Spake (see all)

• Thank You, Essential Workers - September 7, 2020
• Mid-Century Modern for sale – 346 Waring, Memphis, TN - July 9, 2013
• RE Buzz – Real Estate News Roundup – July 9, 2013 - July 9, 2013