The Memphis Area Association of Realtors has just released the Sales Stats for March and 2009 YTD. March sales are down 39.6% for units and 9.7% for average sales price, compared to March of 2008. YTD sales units are down 29.6% and average price down 10.5% from 2008 (and we thought last year was bad). The report has an interesting breakdown of existing home sales, new home sales and foreclosure sales.
I was rummaging through some old books the other day and found How to Lie with Statistics, by Darrell Huff, which made me think of how sales numbers and other market indicatiors have been massaged since the bubble burst. I think the sales reports are helpful, but is a growing number of pendings and a reduction in inventory necessarily a good sign? Who knows? And who is going to let any of this data affect them if they are highly motivated to buy or sell?
I prefer to use some softer stats to guage the market, like increasing hits on my IDX website, more blog readers and more calls about my listings – all of which are happening. More buyers and potential buyers seem to be realizing that we are in a perfect storm of buying conditions. Homeownership is still an American Dream (don’t want to sound too much like a NAR commercial here), and those who feel secure in their jobs, and are financially able to buy are coming out of hiding. On the other side of the equation, home sellers are frustrated by the slow market, but seem to be coming to the realization that, yes, there was a bubble, and that if they bought during the inflated highs, they cannot expect a profit.
So look at the numbers. They are interesting, and the neighborhood breakdowns bring it closer to home. Interpret and spin as you please. I am booked with 3 new clients for the weekend and have appointments scheduled every day next week. Things are looking pretty rosy from this writer’s point of view
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